[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 28 10:15:55 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Region 1138 (N13W12)
produced some B-class flares. Solar wind speed gradually decreased
from 380 to 330 km/s over the last 24 hours. The interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) Bz component ranged between +/-5nT. Expect
Very Low solar activity for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 21111112
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 2 11100021
Learmonth 4 21111112
Canberra 1 11100001
Hobart 2 21100001
Casey(Ant) 7 3--21212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1010 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Dec 3 Quiet
29 Dec 3 Quiet
30 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Observed mostly Quiet conditions in the Australian/NZ
and Antarctic regions. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed during the
last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for
the next three days as the solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels, and hence low ionising radiation is expected
during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Dec 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Dec 8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Dec 8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Dec 8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were mildly depressed at the mid to low latitudes,
particularly at night, due to a decrease in ionising radiation
resulting from very low solar activity for this period in the
solar cycle. Note, seasonal sporadic E may degrade communications
at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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