[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 5 10:32:17 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec: Very Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 87/30 89/33 89/33
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours,
with the only notable activity being a B5.6 class event at 2118UT.
Solar wind speed ranged between 280km/s-320km/s over the UT day.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged
between +/-3nT. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for
the next three days with the slight chance of a C-class event.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 11221021
Darwin 1 10110011
Townsville 4 11221121
Learmonth 3 11121021
Canberra 1 01110010
Hobart 2 11211010
Casey(Ant) 7 23321121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0100 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Dec 4 Quiet
06 Dec 4 Quiet
07 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Dec 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Dec 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
06 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
07 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions over the last 24 hours with MUF depressions of ~15% observed
during local night for Northern AUS while enhanced conditions
observed during local day for IPS Nuie station. Mostly normal
ionospheric support for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions
over the last 24 hours. Notable sporadic E for some IPS Northern
AUS and Southern AUS stations between 07-12UT. Improved HF conditions
expected over the next 3 days with MUFs near predicted monthly
values for all regions. Possible depressed MUFs ~15% for Northern
AUS/Equatorial regions during local night for the next 2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 292 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 13200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list