[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 4 10:34:06 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 87/30 87/30 89/33
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours.
Region 1131 was the source of a B5.3 flare at 0658UT and has
undergone some growth in spot size but without any change in
magnetic complexity. Solar wind speed continued to decline, from
310km/s at 00UT to be 280km/s at the time of this report. The
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
+/-2nT. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low for
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 12110111
Darwin 2 11110102
Townsville 5 22121121
Learmonth 1 11010101
Canberra - --------
Hobart 0 01010000
Casey(Ant) 5 23211021
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 2100 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Dec 4 Quiet
05 Dec 4 Quiet
06 Dec 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Dec 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Dec 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
05 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
06 Dec 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 3 December
and is current for interval 3-4 December. MUF depressions of
regions. Mostly normal ionospheric support for Southern AUS/NZ
and Antarctic regions over the last 24 hours. Notable sporadic
E for some IPS Northern AUS stations between 09-15UT. Improved
HF conditions expected over the next 3 days with MUFs near predicted
monthly values for all regions. Possible depressed MUFs ~15%
for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions during local night for the
next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 30800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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