[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 August 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 14 09:04:58 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug:  84/26

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Aug             15 Aug             16 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be Very Low over the next three 
days. The solar wind speed increased from 350 to 440 over the 
UT day. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +6/-4 
nT over the last 24 hours. Early in the UT day on 15 August expect 
a bump in the solar wind due to a narrow coronal hole extending 
from the northern equatorial region of the sun to the southern 
pole. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111211
      Darwin               2   22100101
      Townsville           7   222-----
      Learmonth            4   211-----
      Canberra             2   110-----
      Hobart               3   11111211
      Casey(Ant)           7   222-----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2211 1001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Aug     6    Quiet 
15 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Aug     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Expect Quiet conditions today with a isolated cases 
of unsettled conditions at high latitudes. Early in the UT day 
on 15 August expect geomagnetic activity to increase to unsettled 
levels with isolated cases of active levels at high latitudes 
due to an increase in the solar wind speed. These slightly elevated 
conditions are not expected to last more than a half of a day 
due to the narrowness of the coronal hole. Later in the UT day 
geomagnetic activity is expected to return to mostly quiet conditions 
with possible unsettled conditions at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Aug    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Aug    27    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Aug    27    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Aug    27    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Generally weak ionosphere observed in the Antarctic 
region during the local night time hours. Expect mostly normal 
ionospheric conditions next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 352 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    39000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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