[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 August 10

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug:  86/29

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Aug             14 Aug             15 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be Very Low over the next three 
days. The solar wind speed decreased from 385 to 340 over the 
UT day and is expected to remain below 400 km/s for the next 
three days. The interplanetary magnetic field was between +2/-3 
nT over the last 24 hours with a southward bias. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           5   12212---
      Learmonth            3   11111---
      Canberra             1   01001---
      Hobart               3   11112111
      Casey(Ant)           5   22211---
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   3332 2111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Aug     2    Quiet 
14 Aug     2    Quiet 
15 Aug     6    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 Aug    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Aug    30    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Aug    30    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Aug    30    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 455 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:    60800 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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