[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 6 09:46:12 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low. There was a C1-level flare
at ~21UT. Solar wind speed remained steady at around 500km/s.
The IMF Bz component remained mostly neutral. The anticipated
second solar wind shock did not arrive and it is possible the
two CME's observed on Aug 01 merged into a single front which
arrived at Earth on Aug 03. Solar activity is expected to remain
low with the chance of further C-class flares from regions 1093
and 1094.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 23122211
Darwin 5 23112111
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 7 33112211
Canberra 3 22012110
Hobart 5 22022211
Casey(Ant) 10 33322312
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 42 6535 4464
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Aug 6 Quiet
08 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 3 August and
is current for interval 4-6 August. The anticipated second solar
wind shock did not eventuate. Consequently, geomagnetic conditions
declined steadily from the levels of Aug 03-04. Conditions were
unsettled early in the UT day at low to mid latitudes, tending
to quiet for the remainder of the day. At high latitudes there
were unsettled intervals throughout the UT day. Unsettled periods
possible day one as solar wind speed remains elevated. Conditions
should decline to generally quiet days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF disturbances possible at high latitudes day one in
association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Aug 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Aug 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
07 Aug 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
08 Aug 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Widespread mild depressions observed over the UT day,
in contrast to the generally enhanced conditions observed on
Aug 04. The anticipated continuation of solar wind disturbance
now appears unlikely. Ionospheric HF support is expected to remain
near predicted monthly values with the chance of variable localised
depressions. Continuing disturbance expected Antarctic region
day one.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 556 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 42600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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