[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 5 09:47:51 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Only B-class flares were observed today. Solar wind
parameters remained elevated following the shock passage observed
Aug 03. Solar wind speed declined steadily over the UT day but
remains at ~500 km/s at the time of report issue. IMF Bz showed
strong fluctuations early in the UT day, then sustained moderate
(-5nT) southward bias over the second half of the UT day. The
>10MeV proton flux declined sharply over the first six hours
of the UT day. An anticipated second solar wind shock from the
complex eruption sequence of Aug 01 is expected to arrive during
day one of the forecast period. Solar wind parameters will remain
elevated days one and two. Solar radio noise has declined from
the levels of the past few days. There is a chance of further
C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Unsettled to Major
Storm
Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A K
Australian Region 35 53364454
Darwin 29 43364443
Townsville 33 53364444
Learmonth 46 53375454
Canberra 29 43364443
Hobart 34 53354554
Casey(Ant) 33 54453454
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 45 (Unsettled)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 68 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 20 2321 1256
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Aug 35 Active to Minor storm
06 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
07 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 3 August and
is current for interval 4-6 August. Geomagnetic conditions were
unsettled to active early in the UT day. Following a weak impulse
in the solar wind magnetic field observed at 1020UT, activity
increased to minor to major storm levels until 12UT at low to
mid latitudes, then declining to unsettled to active. Conditions
were at active to major storm levels throughout the UT day at
high latitudes. A second shock passage is anticipated on day
one, bringing active to major storm levels at all latitudes.
Following the shock passage, geomagnetic conditions will remain
elevated days one and two, gradually declining by day three.
A weak (49nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1020UT on 04 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Fair Fair Fair-Poor
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF disturbances possible mid to high latitudes next
two days in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Aug 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Extended periods of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Aug 30 near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 25 near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions observed with enhancements
and depressions Equatorial/ N Aus regions and periods of disturbance
Antarctic region. Expect similar conditions next two days. Extended
periods of disturbance possible S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions due
to elevated geomagnetic activty resulting from recent solar events.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 42400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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