[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 22 09:24:43 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Apr             23 Apr             24 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    76/14              78/17              78/17
COMMENT: No flares were observed today. The Earth entered a mild 
coronal hole wind stream during the second half of the UT day 
with a reversal in the phi component of the IMF and a trend towards 
northward Bz component. Solar wind speed has maintained an upward 
trend and is at 450 km/s at the time of report issue. Proton 
flux declined to nominal levels over the UT day. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12213211
      Darwin               4   12112211
      Townsville           7   12223221
      Learmonth            5   12113211
      Canberra             2   01102100
      Hobart               4   02213200
      Casey(Ant)           7   3-322111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1111 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Apr    12    Quiet to Unsettled. Chance Active periods at 
                high latitudes. 
23 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled. Chance Active periods at 
                high latitudes. 
24 Apr     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was quiet with an unsettled 
period from 12-15UT. Isolated unsettled to active periods observed 
at high latitudes. Expect unsettled conditions days one and two 
under the influence of a mild coronal hole wind stream. Recently 
observed CME events may produce minor solar wind shocks with 
brief active geomagnetic periods possible mainly at high latitudes. 
Conditions should decline to generally quiet by day three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Apr    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric conditions observed throughout 
the region. Extended periods of spread-F conditions Antarctic 
region. Mild night-time depressions observed Equatorial regions. 
Expect similar conditions next three days. Chance of extended 
degraded periods Antarctic region days one and two. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 336 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    60500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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