[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 21 09:36:51 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 82/23 84/26
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. There was a
fast NE-directed CME late in the UT day 19 Apr, possibly associated
with a disappearing solar filament in the NE quadrant. Solar
wind speed showed a moderate upward trend over the second half
of the UT day, with moderate (-2 to -6nT) fluctuations in the
IMF Bz component. Proton flux also showed a minor upward trend
over the same period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 12112211
Darwin 4 12112112
Townsville 5 12112221
Learmonth 4 11023111
Canberra 2 00012200
Hobart 4 01113211
Casey(Ant) 8 23222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1222 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Apr 12 Quiet to Unsettled. Chance Active periods at
high latitudes.
23 Apr 12 Quiet to Unsettled. Chance Active periods at
high latitudes.
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was quiet with brief
unsettled intervals observed at some stations. Expect unsettled
conditions as small N and S hemisphere coronal holes rotate into
geoeffective position. Recently observed CME events may produce
minor solar wind shocks with brief active geomagnetic periods
possible mainly at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Apr 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric conditions observed throughout
the region. Spread-F conditions before local dawn Darwin and
Hobart. Mild night-time depressions observed Equatorial regions.
Expect similar conditions next three days. Chance of extended
degraded periods Antarctic region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 71600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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