[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 5 09:31:52 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Apr 06 Apr 07 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. A newly
numbered region (1060, N23E57) rotated onto the visible disk
but maintains a simple configuration. Solar activity is expected
to remain at Very Low levels next three days. The solar wind
speed remains elevated near 500km/s with the IMF producing some
moderate (+/-5nT) fluctuations over the UT day. A high speed
coronal hole wind stream is expected late on 06-Apr which may
be associated with an extended Bz southwards IMF structure. The
weak partial halo CME observed 03/0954UT is expected to arrive
late 06 Apr, however the impact is likely to be low.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A K
Australian Region 11 32313233
Darwin 12 33313233
Townsville 11 32313233
Learmonth 11 32313233
Canberra 7 22302222
Hobart 12 33313233
Casey(Ant) 14 4-323233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 2110 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Apr 6 Quiet
06 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
UT day. Expect mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions today (05-Apr)
with isolated Unsettled periods, Unsettled conditions with isolated
Active periods days 2-3 (06/07-Apr) in response to a high speed
solar wind stream and the effects of a weak CME. Minor storm
periods expected at high latitudes 07 Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Apr Normal Normal Fair
07 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Apr 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
06 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
07 Apr 16 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions mostly normal over the UT day with MUFs
mostly near predicted monthly values to marginally enhanced,
particularly overnight. Expect similar conditions today (05-
Apr). Degraded HF conditions expected days 2 and 3 (06/07-Apr)
due to increased geomagnetic activity, particularly at higher
latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 512 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list