[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 4 09:14:35 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. A long-
duration B-class flare was observed at 0954UT associated with
Region 1059 (S25W05). LASCO imagery shows it was accompanied
by a weak partial halo CME with an estimated speed of 500-600km/s
and an Earth arrival date of 06 Apr. Solar activity is expected
to remain at Very Low levels for the next three days, with a
slight chance of a C-class flare from region 1059. The solar
wind speed remains elevated (near 550km/s). A high speed coronal
hole wind stream is expected 06 Apr which may be associated with
an extended Bz southwards IMF structure.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 22213322
Darwin 7 22212321
Townsville 7 22213222
Learmonth 8 22213322
Canberra 4 11102221
Hobart 8 12213322
Casey(Ant) 14 33333332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3233 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Apr 5 Quiet
06 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
UT day. Expect mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next 2 days
(04/05-Apr), with isolated Unsettled periods, and Unsettled
conditions with isolated Active periods day 3 (06-Apr) in response
to a high speed solar wind stream. Minor storm periods expected
at high latitudes 06 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
06 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Apr 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 60% during local day,
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Apr 16 near predicted monthly values
05 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
06 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions mostly normal over the UT day with MUFs
mostly near predicted monthly values to marginally enhanced.
Some significant MUF enhancements observed in the equatorial
region over the past 24 hours. Expect similar conditions next
two days (04-05 Apr). Degraded HF conditions expected 06 Apr
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 456 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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