[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 2 10:20:03 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. Both numbered
spot groups (Region 1057 (N16W43) and Region 1059 (S23E10)) remain
stable. Solar activity is expected to be very low over the next
three days. The solar wind speed was low, ranging from 380-450km/s
over the period however there were some moderately large (+/-7nT)
fluctuations in the magnetic field Bz component. Expect mostly
quiet solar wind/IMF conditions next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet to unsettled,
with isolated Active periods.
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 11 32224322
Darwin 12 42214312
Townsville 13 42224322
Learmonth 13 32215322
Canberra 8 32213212
Hobart 12 33224312
Casey(Ant) 15 3-433323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 53 (Unsettled)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1201 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 5 Quiet
03 Apr 3 Quiet
04 Apr 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity range from Quiet to Active over
the UT day in response to an unsettled solar wind/IMF. Expect
mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next three days, with some
isolated Active periods at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Fair
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 60% over the UT day.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
03 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
04 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: Significant MUF enhancements observed throughout the
region over the past 24 hours, particularly in the equatorial
regions. Expect generally enhanced conditions next three days
(02-04 Apr).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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