[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 1 10:08:34 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. Region
1057 (N17W35) continues to decay, and Region 1059 (S23E24) remains
a stable alpha spot group. Solar activity is expected to be very
low over the next three days. The solar wind speed ranged from
320-420km/s over the period and is expected to remain low for
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22121212
Darwin 2 11010112
Townsville 5 22121212
Learmonth 4 21111211
Canberra 0 00010001
Hobart 5 12121212
Casey(Ant) 9 33321212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 54 (Unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2101 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Apr 5 Quiet
02 Apr 3 Quiet
03 Apr 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. Expect
mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Mar 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
02 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
03 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: Significant MUF enhancements observed throughout the
region over the past 24 hours, particularly during local night.
Expect generally enhanced conditions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 80600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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