[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 September 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Sep             19 Sep             20 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The visible disk is spotless. The solar wind speed remained 
below about 470 km/s over the past 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet with unsettled
periods at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 17 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22221112
      Darwin               4   12211111
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            4   22211111
      Canberra             2   12110011
      Hobart               4   12121112
      Casey(Ant)           8   23322122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            45   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2221 1121     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Sep     5    Quiet 
19 Sep     5    Quiet 
20 Sep     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated unsettled periods likely at high latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Sep    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values at Vanimo with
      depressions to 45% 05-20 UT. Near predicted monthly
      values at Niue with depressions to 30% 00, 02-05 and
      17 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 30% at
      Cocos Is. 04-09 UT. No Townsville data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 60% at
      Canberra, Christchurch, Hobart and Sydney mostly
      around 12-20 UT. Blanketing sporadic E at Norfolk Is.
      02-03 UT and spread F at Hobart during night hours.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:   0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Depressions to 30% possible, particularly at lower latitudes.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 459 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   101000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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