[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 September 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Sep             18 Sep             19 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               70/5

COMMENT: The visible disk is spotless. The solar wind speed has 
ranged between about 420 and 500 km/s. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Quiet to unsettled
with an isolated active period at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 16 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22321122
      Darwin               4   21210112
      Townsville           7   22321222
      Learmonth            4   22220021
      Canberra             2   11210011
      Hobart               4   21211112
      Casey(Ant)          11   33431121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Sep : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            15   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1221 1212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Sep     7    Quiet to unsettled. Possibility of an isolated 
                active period at high latitudes. 
18 Sep     5    Quiet 
19 Sep     5    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Sep      Fair-normal    Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
18 Sep      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Sep    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% at
      Niue 01, 02 and 09-15 UT and depressions to 50% at
      Vanimo, 05-20 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed 03-10
      and 15-20 UT. No Townsville data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
      Enhancements to 45% observed at Canberra, Hobart and
      Sydney between about 12-20 UT. Night spread F observed
      at Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:   0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Depressions to 30% possible, particularly at lower latitudes.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 424 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   104000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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