[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 13 09:46:13 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
The visible disk remains spotless. Solar wind speed stayed
between 300 and 340 km/s for most parts of the UT day today.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed
between +/- 4 nT almost the whole day today. Some strengthening
in solar wind stream may be observed on 14 and 15 September due
to a recurrent pattern. Solar activity is expected to stay at
very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 2 11100102
Townsville 5 12211222
Learmonth 1 11001101
Canberra 0 00011000
Hobart 3 11122101
Casey(Ant) 5 23211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Sep 3 Quiet
14 Sep 6 Moslty quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
15 Sep 9 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet over the last 24
hours. Similar conditions are expected on 13 September.
Isolated unsettled periods may be observed on 14 September
and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 15 September.
This rise in geomagnetic conditions is expected due to a
recurrent pattern.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most locations
on 12 September with periods of presence of strong sporadic
E-layer on low latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions may be
expected on most locations for the next three days with the
possibility of minor to moderate degradations on high latitudes
on 15 Septebmer.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Sep -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted montly values to depressed by
15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep -6 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep -8 Mostly near predicted monthly values, minor
depressions possible in southern regions.
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal across Aus/NZ
regions on 12 September. Similar HF conditions may be expected
for the next 3 days with small possibility of isolated periods
of minor MUF depressions in the Southern Aus/NZ regions on
15 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 302 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 27700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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