[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 12 09:43:14 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
The visible disk remains spotless. Solar wind speed stayed
between 280 and 320 km/s for most parts of the UT day today.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed
negative upto -6nT between 0800 UT and 1900UT. Bz stayed
close to the normal value before and after the above mentioned
period of negative Bz. Solar activity is expected to stay
at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 12112222
Darwin 4 12111112
Townsville 6 12122222
Learmonth 5 22012221
Canberra 2 01011111
Hobart 4 11112211
Casey(Ant) 6 12222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Sep 3 Quiet
13 Sep 3 Quiet
14 Sep 6 Moslty quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet over the last
24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next
three days with some posibility of isolated unsettled
periods on 14 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most
locations on 11 September with periods of presence of
strong sporadic E-layer on low latitudes. Mostly normal
HF conditions may be expected on most locations for the
next three days as no significant variation in the ionospheric
conditions is expected during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Sep -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values
13 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values
14 Sep -6 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal across Aus/NZ
regions on 11 September. Similar HF conditions may be expected
for the next 3 days with small possibility of isolated periods
of minor MUF depressions in the Southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 302 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 20600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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