[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 31 10:40:32 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 73/9
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity was observed over the last 24
hours. Expect no more than B-class flares as this region rotates
around the western limb. Late in the UT day 29 October the Earth
crossed a solar sector boundry. Solar wind speed varied between
355 and 385 km/s and is presently 355 km/s. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was southward for
the first part of the UT day, 30 October peaking at -7nT. The
solar wind is expected to remain below 400 km/s for the next
three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 33332111
Darwin 7 23232111
Townsville 10 33332221
Learmonth 8 32232211
Canberra 5 22331000
Hobart 8 22341111
Casey(Ant) 9 33232211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct :
Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 0212 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 4 Quiet
01 Nov 4 Quiet
02 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed at
low to mid latitudes. Quiet to Active conditions observed at
high latitudes due to reconnection resulting from the Bz component
of the IMF going southward between 29/2200 and 30/0800. Expect
mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
01 Nov -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Nov -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Expect near predicted monthly HF conditions for the
Australian and Antarctic regions today 31, October. For the following
two days periods of minor depressions may be observed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 20900 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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