[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 30 10:11:24 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity was observed over the last 24
hours. The GOES solar x-ray flux instrument detected one B-class
flare from active region (AR) 1029 through out the UT day, 29
October. The GONG magnetogram shows the region has simplified
to a more stable magnetic configuration. Expect no more than
B-class flares as this region rotates around the western limb
during the next two days. Solar wind speed varied between 335
and 385 km/s and is presently 360 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly northward during
the last 24 hrs ranging between +10/-5 nT. The solar wind is
expected to remain below 400 km/s for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 22222222
Darwin 6 21222222
Townsville 8 22223222
Learmonth 7 12223221
Canberra 4 11212112
Hobart 5 12212212
Casey(Ant) 9 33322122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct :
Darwin 43 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1012 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 4 Quiet
31 Oct 4 Quiet
01 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the
last 24 hours. Expect this trend to continue for the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct 1 Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct 1 Near predicted monthly values
01 Nov 1 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Noted spread F at Hobart during the local night. Expect
near predicted monthly HF conditions for the Australian and Antarctic
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 40900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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