[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 22 10:42:55 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed ranged between 290km/s-270km/s over the UT day.
Bz, the north south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +3nT and -2nT. Very Low solar activity is
expected over the next few days with no significant active regions
currently on disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 2 11101102
Townsville 5 12112222
Learmonth 2 01112101
Canberra 1 00001101
Hobart 3 11111111
Casey(Ant) 6 23311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 1000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Oct 5 Quiet
23 Oct 5 Quiet
24 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected over the next 2 days. Possible
Unsettled to Active conditions for 24Oct due to recurrent coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
23 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
24 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Oct 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
24 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours. Depressed conditions again during local day and night
for Equatorial regions. Normal conditions for Northern AUS regions.
Enhanced conditions again for Southern AUS/NZ regions during
local night. Normal ionospheric support for high latitudes. Notable
increase in sporadic E for mid to low latitudes. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 3 days, with depressed periods for
low latitudes and possible enhancements during local night for
mid latitudes. Enhanced sporadic E effects are expected as well
over the next 24 hours for Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern
AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 295 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 15900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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