[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 21 10:43:40 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours.
New region 1028 was observed at 0430UT at N23E62 and is a single
A type spot. Solar wind speed remained at 280kms over the UT
day. Bz, the north south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +/-3nT. Very Low solar activity is expected
over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Darwin 2 11100002
Townsville 4 12211121
Learmonth 1 11100001
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 2 11110011
Casey(Ant) 5 22320111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Oct 4 Quiet
22 Oct 5 Quiet
23 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Oct -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours. Depressed conditions again during local day and night for
Equatorial regions and during local day for Northern AUS regions.
Enhanced conditions again for Southern AUS/NZ regions during
local night. Normal ionospheric support for high latitudes. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 3 days, with possible depressed
periods for low latitudes and enhancements during local night
for mid latitudes. Possible meteor shower activity in the next
24-48 hours could result in enhanced sporadic E.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 11400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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