[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 11 10:19:05 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over
the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed stayed between 250
and 280 km/s for most parts of this period. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed mostly slightly
negative (upto -2nT) during this period.The solar disc
continues to remain spotless. Solar activity is expected to
stay at very low levels for the next three days. However some
strengthening in the solar wind stream is possible from 11 to
13 October due to a recurrent pattern.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11121111
Darwin 2 11020002
Townsville 5 12122112
Learmonth 2 11020001
Canberra 1 01020000
Hobart 3 11121111
Casey(Ant) 6 22321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 0111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 4 Mostly quiet. Slight chance of isolated unsettled
periods.
12 Oct 5 Mostly quiet. Slight chance of isolated unsettled
periods.
13 Oct 5 Mostly quiet. Slight chance of isolated unsettled
periods.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained at quiet levels on
10 October. Similar conditions may be expected for the next
3 days with a slight chance of isolated unsettled periods
during these days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly at normal levels on
most locations on 10 October. Wide spread sporadic E-layer
on low and mid latitudes resulted in unexpected variations
to HF conditions at these locations. HF conditions are expected
to remain mostly normal on most locations for the next three
days with a slight chance of isolated minor degradation periods
at high latitudes during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct -4 near predicted monthly values
12 Oct -4 near predicted monthly values
13 Oct -4 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
across Aus/NZ regions for the next three days with slight
possibility of isolated periods of minor degradations during
this period in the southern parts of this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 300 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 19000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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