[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 10 10:12:05 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over
the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed stayed between 270
and 320 km/s for most parts of this period. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed mostly slightly
negative (upto -4nT) during this period.The solar disc
continues to remain spotless. Solar activity is expected to
stay at very low levels for the next three days. However
some strengthening in the solar wind stream is possible on
11 and 12 October due to a recurrent pattern.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 12211111
Darwin 2 11110101
Townsville 5 12221212
Learmonth 3 21111110
Canberra 1 11100000
Hobart 3 11211111
Casey(Ant) 6 23221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1100 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 3 Quiet
11 Oct 4 Quiet
12 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained at quiet levels on
09 October. Similar conditions may be expected for the next
3 days with a slight chance of isolated unsettled periods on
12 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly at normal levels on
most locations on 09 October. Wide spread sporadic E-layer
on low and mid latitudes resulted in unexpected variations
to HF conditions at these locations. HF conditions are expected
to remain mostly normal on most locations for the next three
days with a slight chance of isolated minor degradation
periods at high latitudes on 12 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct -2 near predicted monthly values
11 Oct -2 near predicted monthly values
12 Oct -3 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
across Aus/NZ regions for the next three days with some
possibility of isolated periods of minor degradations on
12 October in the southern parts of this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 275 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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