[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 9 10:30:10 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Nov             10 Nov             11 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The visible disc is spotless. The solar wind speed rose 
from about 270 to 450 km/s over the past 24 hours. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from about 
-9 to 9 nT. STEREO imagery shows a CME erupting ~08/0400 UT, 
probably from the far side. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet to unsettled.
Isolated active period at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 08 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   23232223
      Darwin               9   13232223
      Townsville          13   23333233
      Learmonth            9   23232222
      Canberra             8   13232122
      Hobart               9   13233222
      Casey(Ant)          15   34332333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              1   0000 0101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Nov     6    Quiet 
10 Nov     5    Quiet 
11 Nov     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated unsettled periods 9 Nov. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
10 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
11 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
08 Nov   -23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
      01-08 UT, enhancements to 30% 20-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 35%
      06-23 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      00-07 UT, 21-23 UT and also 13-17 UT at Darwin.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      00-07, 19-23 UT and also 09-16 UT at Brisbane and
      Norfolk Is.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      07-16 and 19-23 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
10 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
11 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values.

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 7 November 
and is current for interval 8-10 November. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 264 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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