[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Nov             09 Nov             10 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The solar wind speed remained below 280 km/s over the 
last 24 hours. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field ranged between ~ -3 and 3 nT. Solar wind speed 
is expected to increase today due to the effects of a coronal 
hole high speed wind stream. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110012
      Darwin               2   10010012
      Townsville           5   22111122
      Learmonth            1   10010002
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Hobart               2   11110011
      Casey(Ant)           3   11111012
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   0000 0000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Nov     7    Quiet to unsettled. Chance of an isolated active
                period. 
09 Nov     6    Quiet to unsettled
10 Nov     5    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
09 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
10 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Nov   -13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
09 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
10 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 283 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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