[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 6 10:33:31 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The solar wind speed remained below 320 km/s over the
last 24 hours. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between ~ -4 and 5 nT. SOHO imagery shows
a CME occurring off the east limb at 0100 UT which may have been
associated with an increase in x-ray flux that occurred around
04/2100 UT. Region 1030 (N25, E04) was numbered today. Solar
wind parameters may become disturbed 6 Nov in response to a coronal
hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 22111011
Darwin 2 21100001
Townsville 5 22212121
Learmonth 2 22010001
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 6 23321011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 7 Quiet to unsettled
07 Nov 6 Quiet to unsettled
08 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated active period possible 6 Nov, 7 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
07 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
08 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
01-05 and 13-19 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
06-12 and 18-19 UT. Enhancements to 30% 22-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
00-05 and 22-23 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25%
00-08 and 12-19 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 40% at
Macquarie Is. and Casey 10-19 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
07 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
08 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 286 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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