[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 5 10:30:19 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The solar wind speed remained below 320 km/s over the
last 24 hours. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between ~ -1 and 4 nT. Possible CME was
observed on the east limb at ~ 11 UT but is not expected to be
Earth directed. Solar wind parameters are expected to become
disturbed possibly late on 5 Nov or 6 Nov in response to a coronal
hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11111121
Darwin 3 11011112
Townsville 6 22211132
Learmonth 2 01000112
Canberra 0 00000020
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 4 12211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Nov 5 Quiet
06 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
07 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Field is expected to become disturbed possibly as early as
late today due to a recurrent coronal hole. An isolated active period
possible on 6 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
06 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
07 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Nov -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
02-06 and 13-21 UT.
Niue Island Region:
15-40% depressed with occasional blanketing sporadic E
02-05 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
00-01, 12-19 and 21-22 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
mostly 00-07 UT. Further depressions to 25% at
Brisbane, Norfolk Is. and Learmonth 10-22 UT.
Enhancements to 30% 17-19 UT at Canberra and Sydney.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 35%
mostly 11-21 UT at Casey, Davis and Macquarie Is. Near
predicted monthly values at Scott Base with 30%
enhancements 09-17 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
06 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
07 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 61000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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