[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 May 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 26 09:32:28 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 May 27 May 28 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Active region 1018 does not shown any spots at this time. The
solar wind has decresed from 380 to 300 km/s. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 4 12211112
Learmonth 0 10010000
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00100010
Casey(Ant) 2 11111110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2210 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 May 4 Quiet
27 May 4 Quiet
28 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Normal
27 May Normal Normal Normal
28 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 May 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values over UT day,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 May 5 near predicted monthly values
27 May 5 near predicted monthly values
28 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions over the last 24 hours for
all regions, with continued sporadic E for Northern AUS and Equatorial
regions. Enhanced conditions for Antarctic and southern Australian
regions possible. Expect these conditions to prevail over the
next 3 days with near predicted monthly MUF values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 62600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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