[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 May 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 25 09:50:29 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May:  Very Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 May             26 May             27 May
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Region 1018 has not shown any significant change in spot size 
over the last 24 hours. Bz fluctuated between +/-2nT over the 
UT day and solar wind velocity remained within normal levels 
between 360km/s to 380km/s. Solar activity is expected to be 
Very Low for the next 3 days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110111
      Darwin               3   21110012
      Townsville           6   22221222
      Learmonth            2   11110111
      Camden               2   12110011
      Canberra             1   11010001
      Hobart               1   11010001
      Casey(Ant)           4   22111211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Gnangara             7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0011 0222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 May     4    Quiet 
26 May     4    Quiet 
27 May     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
26 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
27 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 May     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 May     5    near predicted monthly values 
26 May     5    near predicted monthly values 
27 May     5    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions over the last 24 hours for 
all regions, with continued sporadic E for Northern AUS and Equatorial
regions. Enhanced conditions for Antarctic regions with occasional 
disturbed periods. Similar conditions are expected over the next 
3 days with near predicted monthly MUF values. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    55300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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