[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 May 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 14 09:46:13 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 May 15 May 16 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Two spots have been observed at N18E35. This active
region has a moderate chance of subflaring. However it has a
simple beta magnetic class and is not expected to produce any
significant flares at this time, though the field strength has
grown slightly since yesterday. The Lasco C3 images show an
expulsion of coronal material off the east limb first observed
on the 12 May 2119 UT image, this is not expected to be
geo-effective. The solar wind speed ranged from 350 to 290 km/s
and is expected to progressively increase to 500 km/s over the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11101201
Darwin 3 21101202
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 4 22111201
Camden 1 11100100
Canberra 0 01000100
Hobart 0 10000100
Casey(Ant) 4 22211210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 May 7 Quiet
15 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Expect mostly quiet geomagnetic activity levels today.
Over the following two days expect quiet conditions with isolated
periods of unsettled geomagnetic activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal
15 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 May 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 May 10 near predicted monthly values
15 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
16 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly elevated MUFs expected due to an increase in
ionisation induced by an increase in EUV levels from plage regions
on the sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 33300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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