[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 13 09:41:19 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 May 14 May 15 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: The visible disc remains spotless, however there are
two plage regions. The two plage regions show a beta magnetic
class structure and have moderate possibility to subflare. No
significant flare activity is expected at this time. The solar
wind speed decreased from 370 to 330 km/s, but is expected to
return to just under 400 km/s by the end of the UT day and
increase to 500 kkm/s in the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Darwin 2 11100111
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 2 11100201
Camden 1 01000101
Canberra 0 00000100
Hobart 0 01000100
Casey(Ant) 4 12211211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 May 6 Quiet
14 May 7 Quiet
15 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect mostly quiet geomagnetic activity levels today.
Over the following two days expect quiet conditions with isolated
periods of unsettled geomagnetic activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal
14 May Normal Normal Normal
15 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 May 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 May 10 near predicted monthly values
14 May 10 near predicted monthly values
15 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 55900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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