[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 March 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 9 10:22:05 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters mildly elevated for some hours
during the mid part of the UT day.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0649UT
on 08 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 22333311
Darwin 9 12332312
Townsville 11 22333322
Learmonth 10 22333320
Camden 7 11333210
Canberra 7 11333200
Hobart 11 12343311
Casey(Ant) 13 33433311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 5 Quiet
10 Mar 4 Quiet
11 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speed gradually increased from 300 to 400
km/s over the UT day. Some periods of moderately southward Bz
observed. Regional geomagnetic conditions were quiet with unsettled
periods during the mid part of the UT day. Isolated active intervals
at high latitudes. Expect mostly quiet conditions next two days.
A mild coronal hole wind stream may produce unsettled periods
day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Mar -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Mar -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions observed Equatorial
and N Aus regions. Expect similar conditions next three days
with the chance of some disturbance Antarctic region day three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 37400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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