[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 5 10:32:08 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. Minor variability
observed in solar wind parameters.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22222212
Darwin 6 21222212
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 6 22122212
Camden 5 12122112
Canberra 6 32122102
Hobart 6 12222212
Casey(Ant) 10 33322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1011 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Mar 4 Quiet
06 Mar 4 Quiet
07 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Despite sustained mildy negative Bz in the interplanetary
magnetic field over the first half of the UT day, the regional
geomagnetic field remained quiet throughout the UT day. At high
latitudes conditions were unsettled over the first half of the
UT day, becoming quiet later in the day. Expect generally quiet
conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Mar -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Mar -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Mar -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
07 Mar -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions to 30% observed
Equatorial/N Aus regions. Weak ionosophere observed Antarctic
region local afternoon/evening. Otherwise conditions mostly
normal. Conditions are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to mildly depressed (10 to 20%) next three days due to
continuing low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 42400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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