[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 4 10:11:19 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low and
is expected to remain very low for the next three days. Solar
wind parameters were briefly elevated following a weak sudden
impulse at 06UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 22322322
Darwin 10 22333222
Townsville 12 22333332
Learmonth 12 22333332
Camden 7 21322222
Canberra 4 2120----
Hobart 8 11322322
Casey(Ant) 11 33421222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Mar 5 Quiet
05 Mar 4 Quiet
06 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: A weak sudden impulse in the solar wind was observed
at the ACE satellite platform before 05UT, arriving at the Earth
about one hour later. Regional geomagnetic conditions became
Quiet to Unsettled, with isolated Active intervals at high latitudes
only. Solar wind parameters had declined to near pre-impulse
levels by the end of the UT day. Expect generally Quiet conditions
next three days, with the chance of continuing Unsettled periods
at high latitudes day one.
A weak (11nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 0603UT on 03 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Mar -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Mar 0 near predicted monthly values
05 Mar -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Mar -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mild to moderate depressions observed Equatorial and
N to Central Aus latitudes local morning/day. The brief but
significant Equatorial enhancements observed in previous days
were not evident. Antarctic conditions remained near normal
despite mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. Conditions are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to mildly
depressed (10 to 20%) next three days due to continuing low
solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 32300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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