[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 June 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 30 09:52:32 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed increased from a minimum of
420km/s at 0000UT to around 550km/s by 1000UT and stayed
between 500 km/s and 550 km/s for the rest of the UT day
today. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
remained mostly negative (upto around -5nT) by 0400UT and
then stayed close to the normal value for most part of the
remaining day. Solar activity is expected to be very low
for the next 3 days as the visible solar disk remains spotless.
Solar wind stream is expected to weaken over the next
24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 33222111
Darwin 4 22212101
Townsville 8 33222212
Learmonth 9 33323200
Camden 6 33122100
Canberra 3 22112100
Hobart 8 33123111
Casey(Ant) 10 33222-32
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 2210 1343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jun 6 Quiet to unsettled
01 Jul 4 Quiet
02 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity varied from quiet to unsettled
levels over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected
on 30 June with the possibility of a decline in activity levels
to mostly quiet on 01 and 02 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Strong sporadic-E regions on low and mid latitudes
and spread-F conditions mainly on mid and high latitudes were
observed over the last 24 hours. Minor degradations on low
and mid latitudes and minor to moderate degradations on high
latitudes are possible on 30 July. HF conditions are expected
to remain mostly normal on most locations on 01 and 02 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jun 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values during local day,
Near predicted montly values to enhanced around 40%.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
01 Jul 7 near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 7 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs remained mostly close to the normal values for
low and mid latitude regions with periods of strong sporadic
E on 29 June. Minor to significant degradations in HF conditions
observed on high latitdes on this day. Minor degradations in
HF conditions on low and mid latitudes and minor to moderate
degradations on high latitudes may be expected on 30 June. HF
conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on most
locations on 01 and 02 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 22100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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