[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 29 09:54:40 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed increased from a minimum of 360km/s at 10UT
to be 420km/s at the time of this report. Bz had notable sustained
southward periods of -5nT between 11UT-15UT as well as increasing
in magnitude from -7nT to -10nT between 16UT-19UT. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days as the visible
solar disk remains spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 11 22212343
Darwin 8 22212233
Townsville 11 22222343
Learmonth 14 32222344
Camden 10 22112343
Canberra 8 12111243
Hobart 10 22112343
Casey(Ant) 8 22211-33
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
No planetary ndexces due to equipment/data problems.
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jun 6 Quiet
01 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the last
24 hours with Active conditions from 15UT up until the time of
this report. The solar wind velocity increased from a minimum
of 360km/s at 10UT to a maximum of 420km/s due to coronal hole
effects. Bz had sustained southward periods from 13UT-19UT resulting
in Active conditions. Solar wind parameters are expected to decline
over the next 24-36 hours with Quiet to Unsetteld conditions
for 29Jun and mostly Quiet conditions for 30Jun-01Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
30 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
01 Jul Normal-fair Normal Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jun 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Equatorial regions during
local night with notable sporadic E. Mostly normal conditions
for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions with enhanced MUFs
during local night for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Disturbed conditions
for Antarctic regions. MUF depressions of 10%-20% are expected
for low latitudes during local day for the next 3 days. Mostly
normal conditions for mid latitudes with possible nightime
enhancements
and disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 41000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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