[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun:  Very low

Flares: None.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jun             18 Jun             19 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: The visible disc remains spotless. The solar wind speed 
remained below 360 km/s over the 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11112100
      Darwin               2   11112100
      Townsville           5   12222211
      Learmonth            3   11112110
      Camden               2   01012100
      Canberra             0   00001000
      Hobart               2   10111101
      Casey(Ant)           2   11111110
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2210 1211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jun     5    Quiet 
18 Jun     5    Quiet 
19 Jun     5    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Jun     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% at
      Vanimo 12-14 UT and Niue at 02-03 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
      depressions to 30% around 00-03 and 20-23 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 50% at
      times at Canberra, Christchurch, Hobart and Sydney
      08-20 UT. Night spread F observed at Brisbane, Hobart
      and Norfolk Is.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced during
      night hours.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jun     5    near predicted monthly values 
18 Jun     5    near predicted monthly values 
19 Jun     5    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Lower latitudes may experience occasional depressions 
to 30%. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 304 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    15100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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