[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 June 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 15 09:49:24 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The disk is spotless. Solar wind speed Vsw was low
300-330km/sec.
Stereo-B spacecraft shows similar levels so Vsw should remain
in the low-average 300-350km/sec range for the next 2-3 days.
IMF Bz had an extended southward period 05-21UT up to -7nT which
was effective for merging with the geomagnetic field from ~17UT.
SOHO spacecraft LASCO C2 and C3 imagers observed an east limb
CME early on 13th June which is not expected to be geo-effective.
However if the shock front is broad the edge may glance the
geomagnetic field in the next 1-2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Darwin 3 21011111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 21012121
Camden 2 11011111
Canberra 1 10011001
Hobart 2 10111111
Casey(Ant) 4 21112121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1010 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 4 Quiet
16 Jun 4 Quiet
17 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet and mid and low latitudes
due to low solar wind speed (Vsw). Stereo-B spacecraft shows
similar levels so Vsw should remain in the low-average 300-350km/sec
range for the next 2-3 days. IMF Bz had an extended southward
period 05-21UT up to -7nT which was effective for merging with
the geomagnetic field from ~17UT. The near auroral zone stations
(Mawson, Davis) show Active to Minor Storm conditions near 2330UT.
SOHO spacecraft LASCO C2 and C3 imagers observed an east limb
CME early on 13th June which is not expected to be geo-effective.
However if the shock front is broad the edge may glance the
geomagnetic field in the next 1-2 days causing sporadic Unsettled conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF MUF conditions were at monthly averages except for
southern stations (Canberra, Hobart, Christchurch) which showed
very enhanced nighttime ionisation for reasons not readily apparent.
Extensive spread-F at night at near-equatorial latitudes. MUFs
are expected to remain mostly normal across Aust/NZ region for
the next three days. Low possibility of slight disturbance in
1-2 days if an east limb CME shock front glances the geomagnetic
field.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 283 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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