[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 June 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 4 09:37:56 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Three B-class flares were observed today. The solar wind
speed stayed mostly around 290 km/s until 1300UT and then
showed a gradual increase to around 320 in the later hours
of the day. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field stayed close to the normal value until 1300UT and showed
some fluctuations (between +4 and -3nT) after that. Solar
activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the next
3 days. Some further strengthening in the solar wind stream
may be observed on 4 June due to a recurrent coronal hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11110221
Darwin 4 11110222
Townsville 7 22211322
Learmonth 4 11120221
Camden 2 11000211
Canberra 1 00000111
Hobart 1 10000110
Casey(Ant) 4 11111221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1001 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jun 6 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jun 4 Quiet
06 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet levels
today. The previously anticipated recurrent coronal hole effect
did not raise the geomagnetic activity that much so far. Either
the effect may not have started significantly yet or the solar
wind stream from this coronal hole has weakened in this rotation.
However, some rise (upto unsettled levels) in the geomagnetic
activity due to this coronal hole effect may still eventuate
on 4 June. Activity level is expected to remain at quiet levels
on 05 and 06 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
on 03 June although sporadic E-layers and spread-F conditions
were also observed at times. HF conditions may show minor
degradations on high and some mid latitude locations on
04 June due to a possible slight rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jun 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
05 Jun 3 near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations across Aus/NZ regions for the next three
days with the possibility of minor degradations in the Southern
parts of this regions on 04 June due to a possible slight rise
in geomagnetic activity on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 24500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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