[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 3 09:24:04 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Region 1019(N28E15) produced a B-class flare. The solar wind
speed stayed around 300 km/s for most parts of the UT day today.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed
close to the normal value (between +/-2nT) for most parts of
the UT day today. Solar activity is expected to stay at very
low levels for the next 3 days. However, the solar wind stream
may get strengthened on 3 and 4 June due to an anticipated
recurrent coronal hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11010001
Darwin 2 12110001
Townsville 7 22------
Learmonth 0 10010000
Camden 0 01000001
Canberra 0 00------
Hobart 0 00000000
Casey(Ant) 3 11------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1110 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jun 7 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jun 7 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet levels
today. Geomagnetic activity is expected to rise to quiet
to unsettled levels on 03 and 04 June due to an anticipated
strengthening in the solar wind stream due to the effect of
a recurrent coronal hole. Activity level is expected to decline
to quiet levels on 05 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
on 02 June although sporadic E-layers and spread F conditions
were also observed at times. HF conditions may show minor
degradations on high and some mid latitude locations on 03
and 04 June due to an anticipated slight rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jun -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
04 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
05 Jun 2 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations across Aus/NZ regions for the next three
days with the possibility of minor degradations in the Southern
parts of this regions on 03 and 04 June due to an anticipated
slight rise in geomagnetic activity on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 36400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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