[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 July 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 15 09:40:44 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. Solar wind parameters remain
mildly elevated under the influence of a coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 32322111
Darwin 5 22222111
Townsville 8 32322212
Learmonth 7 32322102
Camden 1 ------01
Canberra 4 21222100
Hobart 7 22233111
Casey(Ant) 9 33322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10 1101 3324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jul 5 Quiet
16 Jul 4 Quiet
17 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: There was a brief interval of moderately negative Bz
early in the UT day, followed by moderately elevated solar wind
velocities. This resulted in unsettled to active geomagnetic
conditions at high latitudes only over the first half of the
UT day. Otherwise geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled.
Chance of unsettled periods at first on day one, with conditions
declining to generally quiet for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jul 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Variable conditions over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jul 6 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 6 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions throughout the region
over the UT day, with no significant departures from average
monthly T index values. Periods of weak conditions observed S
Ocean/Antarctic regions. Expect mostly normal conditions next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 41800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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