[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 July 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 14 09:42:40 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar disk is spotless. Solar wind parameters increased
over the second half of the UT day indicating onset of a mild
coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 11123222
Darwin 6 11122322
Townsville 10 22223332
Learmonth 8 12222332
Camden 5 0111322-
Canberra 4 01112222
Hobart 7 11123322
Casey(Ant) 6 121231--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1111 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jul 5 Quiet
16 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the first half
of the UT day. Onset of a mild coronal hole wind stream around
12UT resulted in mostly unsettled conditions for the second half
of the UT day. Expect continuing unsettled conditions day one,
declining to mostly quiet days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Variable conditions over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul 6 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 6 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions generally near predicted monthly
values. Mild daytime depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions,
with isolated periods of sporadic E. Periods of weak conditions
observed S Ocean/Antarctic regions. Expect mostly normal conditions
next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 34100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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