[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 July 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jul             09 Jul             10 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Holloman Solar Observatory reported region 1024 (S28,W37) 
has 13 spots and an area of 170 mils. There is still a slight chance 
for this region to produce C-class flares over the next three days.
The solar wind ranged from 380 to 340 over the last 24 hours. A 
coronal hole extends down to 25 degrees north latitude and may be
geoffective on 9 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               1   11111000
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            4   12121210
      Camden               2   11011101
      Canberra             0   00010100
      Hobart               3   11111211
      Casey(Ant)           4   12121211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1210 2121     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jul     4    Quiet 
09 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Jul     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Jul     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jul     6    near predicted monthly values 
09 Jul     6    near predicted monthly values 
10 Jul     6    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: MUFs remained mostly close to the normal values. Sporadic 
E noted at Vanimo and Darwin. Some degradations in HF conditions 
observed at high latitudes. Expect mostly normals values for 
MUFs over the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 333 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    41700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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