[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 July 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 7 09:44:12 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul: Low
Flares: NO significant flares.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Region 1024 (S28,W31) appears to have stabilized. GOES
10 shows a steadily decreasing background xray flux and two B-class
flares followed by a C-class flare over the last 24 hours. SOHO
LASCO C3 imagery shows a weak coronal ejection commencing at 1342UT
6 July on the west limb of the solar disk. It is still in progress
at the time of this report, however, does not appear to be connected
to region 1024 and is not expected to be geo-effective. The solar
wind stepped up to around 400 km/s from approximately 350 km/s and
is steadily decreasing again. There will be a moderate chance for
C-class flares over the next three days due the active region 1024.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 22100101
Darwin 3 23100100
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 3 23110001
Camden 1 11100001
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 2 11101101
Casey(Ant) 4 22211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2200 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jul 4 Quiet
09 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expect to be quiet to unsettled
today due to the slight increase in the solar wind speed. Expect
it to return to quiet levels on 8-9 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jul 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs remained mostly close to the normal values for
low and mid latitude regions with strong sporadic E over the
last 24 hours, in particular Vanimo, Cocos Island, and Darwin.
Some degradations in HF conditions observed on high latitudes
during this period. These condition are expected to prevail over
the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 46200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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