[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 21 10:20:48 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low, expected to continue.
Solar wind speeds remain elevated over 400km/s, the tail end
of a coronal hole wind stream. Expected to return to pre-coronal
hole speeds in the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22221112
Darwin 4 22111012
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 6 32222111
Camden 5 22211112
Canberra 4 22211011
Hobart 5 22221111
Casey(Ant) 11 34-32122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 4220 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 3 Quiet
22 Jan 3 Quiet
23 Jan 1 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions returned to Quiet levels at all
latitudes other than the polar regions which saw some isolated
Active periods as a result of substorm activity on the nightside.
The coronal hole wind stream is in decline and Quiet geomagnetic
conditions are predicted for the next three days (21-23 Jan).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal-fair Fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal
22 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Intermittent sporadic-E events observed throughout the
region. Very strong and blanketing at times, particularly in
the Canberra - Sydney region 00-04UT. MUFs were generally mildly
depressed with some significant local depressions during the
day in the equatorial region. Continuing Sporadic-E events likely
from Equatorial to S Aus/NZ regions. Expect continuing variable
HF conditions with occasional MUF depressions 21 Jan. Disturbances
possible in the Antarctic region due to substorm activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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