[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 January 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 8 10:10:51 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Expect the solar wind to be at normal levels for the
next three days and solar activity to be very low.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 12211201
Darwin 3 12110102
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 4 12211201
Camden 2 11200201
Canberra 2 01200101
Hobart 3 11120201
Casey(Ant) 7 2-322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 2101 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jan 4 Quiet
09 Jan 4 Quiet
10 Jan 4 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jan -28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
09 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions observed Equatorial/Australian
regions, particularly at local night. Sporadic-E conditions observed
at most stations, particularly in the south Australian regions.
Expect continuing variable conditions next three days. Persistent
and intense sporadic-E events probable from Equatorial to S Aus/NZ
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 42900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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