[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 January 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jan             08 Jan             09 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Expect the solar wind to be at normal levels for the 
next three days and solar activity to be very low. Small spot 
noted at S22W50 at 1726 UT 06 January by Holloman Observatory. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11121201
      Darwin               3   11111202
      Townsville           6   22222212
      Learmonth            4   21121201
      Camden               3   11121200
      Canberra             2   01121200
      Hobart               4   12221201
      Casey(Ant)           6   2--22212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1111 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jan     4    Quiet 
08 Jan     4    Quiet 
09 Jan     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jan   -13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jan   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
08 Jan   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
09 Jan   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Variable mild MUF depressions/enhancements observed 
Equatorial/ Aus regions. Extended periods of intense sporadic-E 
conditions observed Central-S Aus regions. Expect continuing 
variable conditions next three days. Persistent and intense sporadic-E
events probable from Equatorial to S Aus/NZ regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 425 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    37500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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