[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 January 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 2 10:03:07 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low. The Earth is now under
the influence of a mild coronal hole wind stream which should
persist for 1-2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22222212
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 22222312
Camden 6 22232111
Canberra 5 12222111
Hobart 8 22233211
Casey(Ant) 11 --432122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 3333 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jan 6 Quiet
04 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity declined steadily over the UT day.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field sustained
mild southward bias during the mid part of the UT day. The
geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled
intervals at mid latitudes and isolated active intervals at
high latitudes. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions day one
with the chance of isolated active intervals. Conditions should
decline to generally quiet days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jan -17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jan -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Jan -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
04 Jan -20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable MUF depressions/enhancements observed Equatorial/
Aus regions. Periods of intense sporadic-E conditions observed
Central-S Aus/NZ regions. Expect continuing variable conditions
next three days with the chance of disturbances in Antarctic
region due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 507 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 211000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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