[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 1 10:31:59 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low. The Earth is now under
the influence of a mild coronal hole wind stream which should
persist for 1-2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A K
Australian Region 12 43332222
Darwin 12 43232213
Townsville 12 43332222
Learmonth 15 53332222
Camden 12 43332212
Canberra 8 33221212
Hobart 11 34331212
Casey(Ant) 21 5--43332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity increased to around 500 km/s during
the first half of the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field showed moderate fluctuations about neutral with
one sustained period of southward bias early in the UT day. The
geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled with one active interval
resulting from the sustained negative Bz. Conditions declined
to quiet to unsettled during the second half of the UT day. Expect
quiet to unsettled conditions for the next two days with the
chance of isolated active intervals. Conditions should decline
to generally quiet later on day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Dec -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable MUF depressions/enhancements observed Equatorial/
Aus regions. Periods of intense sporadic-E conditions observed
Equatorial/Aus/NZ regions, especially central Aus latitudes.
Equatorial spread-F observed some stations mainly local afternoon.
Expect continuing variable conditions next three days with the
chance of disturbances in Antarctic region due to elevated
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 294 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 10800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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