[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 27 10:52:40 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 01 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low and
is expected to remain that way for the next three days. The solar
wind dropped back to 380km/s and the IMF fluctuations were very
small. A small increase in solar wind speed, total IMF and IMF
Bz fluctuations is expected 27 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 22111112
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 32111212
Camden 3 11101112
Canberra 1 11001101
Hobart 2 12101101
Casey(Ant) 7 2-321212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1101 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Feb 5 Quiet
01 Mar 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet over the UT
day. An expected increase in solar wind and IMF today (27 Feb)
may produce some Unsettled geomagnetic conditions at mid-low
latitudes, with isolated Active periods at high latitudes. A
return to mostly Quiet conditions expected for 28 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Variable depressions up to 35% over UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Feb -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Mar -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in the Aus/NZ region over
the last 24 hours. MUFs were depressed 10 to 20% across the Aus/NZ
region, particularly during the day. The depressions were due
to continuing low solar activity. The equatorial regions saw
some large fluctuations in MUFs over the day with enhancements
and depressions of up to 35%. Some weak geomagnetic activity
expected on 27 Feb may provide a short lived boost to MUFs and
further MUF variability in the equatorial region, however the
ionosphere is expected to continue to be mildly depressed days
2 and 3 of the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 62500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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